ORSB – ANGOLA COUNTRY STRATEGY PAPER 2011 - 2015
3.4.1 Following the signing
approval of the HCA, the Bank
seek the GoA’s engagement
support to complete the process
achieve the effectiveness of
Angolan Field Office (AOFO).
3.5.2 Program implementation risks
are derived from poor institutional
capacity. The availability of increased
resources and the Bank’s prospective
financing of large-scale projects could
pose
increased
implementation
challenges due to the previously
identified24 issues of lack of capacity
and ownership. New project design
must accommodate lessons learned to
avoid known difficulties to operate in
Angola25. The implementation of the
ICBPR project coupled with the
effectiveness of the Field Office will
provide the proximity and monitoring
tools to mitigate risks.
and
will
and
and
the
3.4.2 Consistent
dialogue
and
stronger engagement with the GoA is
sought in the following issues:
•
Access to ADB resources while
complying with the negative pledge
clause;
•
Taking
forward
the
CPIP
recommendations to improve the
performance
of
the
Bank’s
operations.
•
Increase the Bank’s private sector
operations in Angola
•
Identify opportunities of Bank’s
support to the Government’s regional
integration agenda.
•
The establishment of a fiduciary
framework
suitable
for
the
implementation of Policy Based
Lending operations in the future.
3.5.3 Credit Risk. To finance its
ambitious development program Angola
has incurred sizable external-debt. Debt
ratios are very sensitive to oil price
changes
vis-à-vis
GDP
growth.
However, even when faced with a
complex liquidity crisis, Angola received
positive creditworthiness reviews from
the international credit agencies, the WB
and others. Its creditworthiness is
ranked as medium. The outlook is
generically positive. As the country
resumes its growth path, debt dynamics
are favorable. To mitigate this risk the
Development Partners, led by the IMF,
are closely monitoring the economic and
financial situation.
3.5
Potential Risks and Mitigation
Actions
3.5.1 Macroeconomic risks originated
from an oil crisis. Despite current
reforms, Angola’s dependency on oil
revenues will remain unchanged for the
short to medium-term. The country is
particularly
vulnerable
to
shocks
deriving from a global economic
slowdown that can affect negatively oil
prices, reducing the country’s ability to
finance its budget and development
program. The IMF support programs
and other structural reforms to promote
a
balanced
economy
and
the
development of the non oil sector
economy will mitigate the risks..
IV.
CONCLUSIONS
RECOMMENDATIONS
AND
A. Conclusions
4.1
Angola has evolved to a MIC
that still faces critical development
challenges. After 8 years of peace and
strong growth, Angola’s growth drivers
are now very distinct from the ones of
See Annex 2 CPPR; and RBCSP 2005-07 & CSP Update 2008-09 CR
e.g. Reducing number of components by project, special care in
procurement, translation of key documents to Portuguese. See (§2.7.3).
24
25
20